Results

cesm2.ssp245

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric xgboost lstm naive cnn
diff_of_means −7.04 −17.77 −19.75 −38.66
ratio_of_sd 0.79 0.53 0.76 0.72
monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.79 0.50 0.74 0.67
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.23 0.19 0.13 0.14
qqplot_mae 5.99 15.25 9.74 19.00
acf_mae 0.03 0.10 0.07 0.10
extremogram_mae 0.02 0.03 NaN NaN

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

cesm2.ssp370

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric xgboost lstm naive cnn
diff_of_means −9.62 −19.77 −22.54 −42.45
ratio_of_sd 0.77 0.51 0.76 0.70
monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.77 0.47 0.72 0.63
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.18 0.43 0.15 0.20
qqplot_mae 6.88 15.81 11.08 20.86
acf_mae 0.03 0.12 0.07 0.11
extremogram_mae 0.02 0.05 NaN NaN

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

cesm2.ssp585

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric xgboost lstm naive cnn
diff_of_means −9.43 −20.35 −23.20 −43.21
ratio_of_sd 0.78 0.49 0.75 0.70
monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.78 0.47 0.74 0.63
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.22 0.23 0.12 0.16
qqplot_mae 6.75 16.42 11.40 21.23
acf_mae 0.03 0.13 0.07 0.12
extremogram_mae 0.02 0.06 NaN NaN

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

ec_earth3.ssp434

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric xgboost lstm naive cnn
diff_of_means −23.41 −24.71 −30.96 −47.61
ratio_of_sd 0.76 0.41 0.71 0.62
monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.76 0.34 0.69 0.55
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.42 0.29 0.17 0.30
qqplot_mae 11.72 18.73 15.21 23.40
acf_mae 0.08 0.20 0.08 0.17
extremogram_mae 0.04 0.03 NaN NaN

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means 0.80 2.00 13.19 −25.51
ratio_of_sd 0.53 0.76 0.83 0.69
monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.47 0.79 0.81 0.69
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.36 0.23 0.31 0.13
qqplot_mae 12.40 7.28 7.94 12.55
acf_mae 0.17 0.14 0.04 0.07
extremogram_mae 0.02 0.02 0.03 NaN

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric naive lstm xgboost cnn
diff_of_means −6.28 −6.57 6.57 −34.70
ratio_of_sd 0.79 0.51 0.85 0.69
monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.80 0.45 0.82 0.67
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.20 0.31 0.32 0.21
qqplot_mae 6.57 13.49 5.27 17.05
acf_mae 0.13 0.16 0.04 0.09
extremogram_mae NaN 0.02 0.02 NaN

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Numerical evaluation metrics

  • Each row correspond an evaluation metric
  • Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
  • Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.
Metric naive lstm xgboost cnn
diff_of_means −2.50 −3.27 9.11 −30.42
ratio_of_sd 0.79 0.52 0.83 0.71
monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.78 0.45 0.80 0.68
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.20 0.36 0.25 0.18
qqplot_mae 6.59 12.64 6.40 14.95
acf_mae 0.16 0.21 0.06 0.10
extremogram_mae NaN 0.04 0.04 NaN

Time series of the first few days

Graphical evaluation metrics

  • Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

  • Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

  • Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

  • In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.