Climate response variable: - sfcWind,
tas, pr: original scale daily,
reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds:
original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily
Training: - Response: ERA5 in reduced scale - Data perdiod: 1980
- 2015.
- Predictors: from CMIP6 (daily or monthly) - Predictors variables:
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl in daily
scale, clt, rsdt,rsds in monthly
scale, the month and the daily daylight amount in seconds.
Validation:
| Metric | xgboost | lstm | naive | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −7.04 | −17.77 | −19.75 | −38.66 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.79 | 0.53 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| qqplot_mae | 5.99 | 15.25 | 9.74 | 19.00 |
| acf_mae | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.02 | 0.03 | NaN | NaN |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | xgboost | lstm | naive | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −9.62 | −19.77 | −22.54 | −42.45 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.77 | 0.51 | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.77 | 0.47 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.18 | 0.43 | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| qqplot_mae | 6.88 | 15.81 | 11.08 | 20.86 |
| acf_mae | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.02 | 0.05 | NaN | NaN |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | xgboost | lstm | naive | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −9.43 | −20.35 | −23.20 | −43.21 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.78 | 0.49 | 0.75 | 0.70 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.78 | 0.47 | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| qqplot_mae | 6.75 | 16.42 | 11.40 | 21.23 |
| acf_mae | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.02 | 0.06 | NaN | NaN |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | xgboost | lstm | naive | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −23.41 | −24.71 | −30.96 | −47.61 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.76 | 0.34 | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.42 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| qqplot_mae | 11.72 | 18.73 | 15.21 | 23.40 |
| acf_mae | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.04 | 0.03 | NaN | NaN |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | lstm | naive | xgboost | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 0.80 | 2.00 | 13.19 | −25.51 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.53 | 0.76 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.47 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.36 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.13 |
| qqplot_mae | 12.40 | 7.28 | 7.94 | 12.55 |
| acf_mae | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | NaN |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | naive | lstm | xgboost | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −6.28 | −6.57 | 6.57 | −34.70 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.79 | 0.51 | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.80 | 0.45 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.20 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| qqplot_mae | 6.57 | 13.49 | 5.27 | 17.05 |
| acf_mae | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| extremogram_mae | NaN | 0.02 | 0.02 | NaN |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | naive | lstm | xgboost | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −2.50 | −3.27 | 9.11 | −30.42 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.78 | 0.45 | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.20 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| qqplot_mae | 6.59 | 12.64 | 6.40 | 14.95 |
| acf_mae | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| extremogram_mae | NaN | 0.04 | 0.04 | NaN |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.